Recession?

February 27, 2008

Monday evening, I had the privilege of attending a meeting sponsored by the Penn-York Lumberman’s Club. Many thanks to Rich Schall for inviting me and for introducing me to people involved in this industry which is so vital to the 5th District. I had an opportunity to say that our platform of lower individual and corporate tax rates, smaller and less-intrusive government, and a free-market, private sector driven economy dovetailed perfectly with the needs of the timber industry.

The featured speaker was Dan North, Chief Economist for Euler Hermes ACI in North America. You may have seen him on CNBC, Bloomberg TV, or Fox Business Network. He presented an interesting discussion concluding that the U.S. is not slipping into a recession … we are already in one. He presented a compelling case that three different factors have occurred simultaneously, any one of which could single-handedly create a recession. He ended on a positive note, however, saying that the indicators all point to a recovery in the last quarter of this year or the first quarter of next year.

During the question and answer session that followed, there was a brief debate over whether we were actually in a recession (which is usually defined as two consecutive quarters of decline in the Gross Domestic Product). After a few minutes of batting the question around, Mr. North just asked, “How many of you would say that we are in a recession?” It was interesting to watch as roughly three quarters of those in attendance raised their hands. That’s no real indicator, of course, of whether we really are in a recession, but it is certainly an indicator of economic sentiment.

What intrigued me most is what was never mentioned. How did we get here? Don’t you think that being $9.3 trillion dollars in debt has something to do with our present economic unrest? If you had spent more than you had earned for 40 out of the last 45 years, had accumulated debt which was 3.5 times greater than your entire income, and were already planning to spend next year some 15% more than you earned, don’t you think your family would be facing economic ruin?

The solution isn’t easy. But it is clear. We have to tighten our belts and make the hard choices now to cut spending. In my lifetime, we’ve gone from being the world’s biggest lender to being the world’s biggest spender. This is no time for politics as usual. We must change the way Washington does business.

That is why I am so thankful for your help in getting out the word about our campaign, for your financial support, and for your refusal to sit down when it’s a time to stand up. It is a time for courage.